Hostage deal collapse or regional conflict: Haniyeh’s assassination in focus
Background
Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas political chief was assassinated in Teran, the capital city of Iran after attending the inauguration of the newly elected president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian.
The attack is still under investigation by the Iran Revolutionary Guard.
The source of the attack is widely reported to be from Israel, with Hamas already issuing a statement that indicted Israel.
“The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas mourns to our great Palestinian people, to the Arab and Islamic nation, and to all the free people of the world: Brother, leader, martyr, Mujahid Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the movement, who was killed in a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran” the Hamas statement read
Israel is yet to make official statement regarding the assassination, with reports saying that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered his ministers not to make any statement regarding the assassination.
Israel over the years is fond of keeping mum on covert operations or assassinations conducted in foreign lands.
But a minister has reacted to the assassination on X, saying that the death of Ismail Haniyeh brings peace closer to the region.
Haniyeh has played a significant role in hostage deal negotiations since the October 7 event. He travelled to Iran, where he had hoped would protect him from Israel’s missiles and bombs.
In the past, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sworn to target Hamas leaders where ever they are in the world.
The vow came after the October 7 attack that killed over 1200 Israelis and 251 taken captives.
More than half of the captives have since been brought home in a hostage deal negotiation and rescue operation by Israeli commandos.
Multiple Assassinations
In Beirut, Israel also targeted a top Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, it said was behind the rocket attack that killed 12 Isreali children in Madja Shams.
The attack in Beirut was successful as announced by the IDF, but in Labenon, there are reports Fuad escaped the assassination.
The assassination of Haniyeh happened less than 24 hours after the attack in Lebanon.
The two assassinations underscore a new tension in the region. Israel has stayed away from Beirut since October 8 Hezbollah began its attack against Israel.
Israel claimed responsibility for the attack in Lebanon but has failed to follow the same pattern with the attack in Iran.
Iran is considered the escalation trigger. The head of the terror proxies in Middle East initiated attack against Israel for attacking its embassy in Damascus, Syria, in April. There is fear the assassination on its soil could cause implosion in the region.
Hostage Deal
Ismail Haniyeh has been the person overseeing the hostage deal negotiations between Hamas and Israel done through mediators.
The deal has had hurdles since it started the second phase after the first phase that brought lull in war in Gaza.
Negotiations have failed since it restarted, but discussions are ongoing to reach agreement.
The military leader of Hamas Yahya Sinwar has gone underground, leaving the negotiation for a hostage deal solely with Ismail Haniyeh.
The assassination of Hnaiyeh will have a significant impact on the hostage deal because the Gaza terror group must find a replacement that would carry-on from the assassinated leader.
There is also the fear of the terror group leaving the negotiation table on the ground that Israel doesn’t want negotiation.
The group had demanded a stop to all military actions from Israel to show good faith in negotiation, but the assassination of its political chief could be marked extreme and lead to suspension of negotiation.
Regional War
The Middle-East had been at the cusp of regional war since October 7 Hamas invaded Israel and killed more than 1000 people and took over 250 captives.
Hezbollah initiated attack against Israel the next day, in what it said was a support for its Palestinians brothers. Houthis also joined the fight against Israel, targeting Israel and ships crossing the region.
The active status of all the Iranian proxies means Israel must respond, either defensively or attackingly.
The move puts the region at risk of escalation with a mistake capable of leading to all-out war in the region.
There have been diplomatic moves made to douse tension in the region, with Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iran being urged to show constraint.
But the recent attack that killed 12 Druze children in Israel, the assassination strike in Beirut and the assassination strike in Iran underscore dangerous escalations that could lead to war.
United States Position
United States is yet to speak, for President Joe Biden; it’s a new twist he doesn’t like.
The president has been a proponent of ceasefire and had in the past announced success in the negotiation, which failed to come into effect.
The president is desperate to secure the release of the hostages as the war had battered his chances of re-election before stepping down from the presidential race.
The United States has vowed to remain strong in its support for Israel despite what happens in the Middle-East, but said it’s working hard to avoid escalations in the region.
President Joe Biden’s administration has a policy of constraint and de-escalation while pushing to return the hostages.
In the past, United States led the coalition that stopped Iranian retaliation attack. Iran launched over 300 missiles at Israel, which it said was in retaliation for the attack on its embassy in Damascus, Syria.
The coalition led by United States was able to shoot down 99% of the missiles launched by Iran, with one that impacted leading to the hurt of a child.
The multiple assassinations will likely come with a repercussion and United States could be bracing for the defense of Israel.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard
The IRG has reacted to the assassination of Hamas political chief on its soil by releasing a statement which said “Early this morning, the residence of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was struck. Resulting in his and one of his bodyguards’ martyrdom . the cause is under investigation and will be announced spoon” .
The statement gives room for proactive measures and also to give Tehran time to articulate what their response could be.
A major response from Iran could lead to regional conflict that would not be in the best interest of anyone.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist and moderate president compared to Ibrahim Raisi, had vowed to embark on policies that would reform the country and ease sanctions that had affected the economy.
Engaging in a new war could be detrimental to his plans, and the avoidance of rhetoric the past president is used to spells a strategic approach for the administration.
Conclusion
United States and France have work to do to make sure Hezbollah and Iran are talked down and urged to maintain constraint.
The United States will also be on a high security alert should Iran conclude its investigation and decide to attack Israel.
Israel still has the belief that diplomatic solutions can be used to address the Hezbollah conundrum that has led to deaths on both sides. But Hezbollah has tied peace to the Israel’s war in Gaza, insisting they would end attack on Israel once Israel ends its war in Gaza.
Haniyeh’s assassination is the latest on the strings of events capable of leading to all-out war. Being that the Hamas political chief was assassinated on Iranian soil, it could trigger a repercussion that could lead to regional war between Iran and Israel.
