Seven Days Ultimatum By ECOWAS Ticks
By Daily Tab24
Category: News
Published:
Niger coup d’état is one among many successful coups in Africa and will certainly not be the last. Africa has seen seven military coups since 2020 in as many as five countries – Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad and Sudan. Coups have happened seven times respectively in the mentioned countries, Mali and Burkina Faso experienced four coups, plus the three mentioned countries that respective experienced once since 2020.
Coup is a helpless trend that began since 1963 in Togo, but coup plotters have evolved and taken prisoners instead of bloodshed. The cause of coups in Africa has not been vigorously addressed and it’s clear the trend will not end today.
Relying on insecurity and economic meltdown; presidential guards of the Nigerien democratic government staged a coup and ousted the President, Bazoum who remained in detention.
In a swift reaction; ECOWAS under the leadership of the newly elected President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu convened a meeting where delegates from the regional bloc met and decided to intervene in Niger coup. The intervention followed an outright threat of military action – all out military confrontation.
Ultimatum was issued to the coup plotters, to relinquish power within seven days back to the democratic mandate of Bazoum. The rash and impulsive decision of ECOWAS places Africa in a tighter corner. It remains unclear what triggered a rash decision that undermines negotiations and diplomatic actions to restore status quo.
In reaction to the decision by ECOWAS, other military junta States in spirit of military-pan-Africanism declared support for Niger and vowed to withdraw their membership of ECOWAS and respond militarily – to aid Niger.
Will ECOWAS risk a regional war? It was least expected that other military head of States in Africa would declare military support for Niger to the extent of defining ECOWAS decision as “Declaration of war against their respective countries”. ECOWAS is not expected to trigger a bloc war and African is not ready for endless war.
The decision by ECOWAS has been viewed as taking the same step they took on Jammeh’s Gambia when he refused to hand over power. Jammeh was alone and it was reasonable to surrender before the determinative action of ECOWAS.
General Abdourahmane Tiani has support of the nation’s military and of the people who had shown solidarity with him, unlike Jammeh, he would not surrender or yield to ECOWAS. Investigations have shown that the Niger coup leader is preparing for eventual military counteroffensive, should what he termed “external forces” meddle in the internal affairs of “sovereign Niger”.
Regional war is not an option for Africa and it is expected that after the end of the ultimatum, ECOWAS will continue to explore other options to compel the coup plotters to surrender and reinstate the deposed president.
ECOWAS appears to be desperate but the reason for the desperation is still unclear. Speaking to Al Jazeera in Abuja, Remi Ajibewa, former director of political affairs at the ECOWAS Commission who attended Abuja- ECOWAS summit said “With Tinubu’s posture, we can see that Nigeria is back on stage” flashing a badge of honor.
Tinubu’s led ECOWAS may be taking a strong stance to convey a message to other potential coup plotters or defend the democratic gains Africa has made so far. His supporters back home praise his resolve while others have criticized his extraordinary interest in another country while his country is massively suffering from insecurity and economic meltdown.
Back home; Tinubu is still grappling with cementing his mandate which was believed to be fraudulent. His relationship with EU waned, when the bloc recently took a rare position of claiming the election that produced him was marred by irregularities and frauds.
It remains to be seen how Tinubu would go about handling the Niger coup, considering limited resources and the insurgencies ravaging his country. ECOWAS rely remarkably on Tinubu to foot bills and decide the way forward, an expectation that is still rooted in uncertainty.
ECOWAS may decide to embrace a deterring action and such will warrant desperate move. There is already a massive pressure on ECOWAS to act as they have been blamed for recent coups – citing their inaction or lack of deterring action.
As the clock ticks, ECOWAS seven days ultimatum will factor the trends of coups in Africa.
